| アブストラクト | AIMS: Models are needed to quantify the economic implications of obesity in relation to health outcomes and health-related quality of life. This report presents the structure of the Core Obesity Model (COM) and compare its predictions with the UK clinical practice data. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The COM is a Markov, closed-cohort model, which expands on earlier obesity models by including prediabetes as a risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2D), and sleep apnea and cancer as health outcomes. Selected outcomes predicted by the COM were compared with observed event rates from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink-Hospital Episode Statistics (CPRD-HES) study. The importance of baseline prediabetes prevalence, a factor not taken into account in previous economic models of obesity, was tested in a scenario analysis using data from the 2011 Health Survey of England. RESULTS: Cardiovascular (CV) event rates predicted by the COM were well matched with those in the CPRD-HES study (7.8-8.5 per 1000 patient-years across BMI groups) in both base case and scenario analyses (8.0-9.4 and 8.6-9.9, respectively). Rates of T2D were underpredicted in the base case (1.0-7.6 vs. 2.1-22.7) but increased to match those observed in CPRD-HES for some BMI groups when a prospectively collected prediabetes prevalence was used (2.7-13.1). Mortality rates in the CPRD-HES were consistently higher than the COM predictions, especially in higher BMI groups. CONCLUSIONS: The COM predicts the occurrence of CV events and T2D with a good degree of accuracy, particularly when prediabetes is included in the model, indicating the importance of considering this risk factor in economic models of obesity. |
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| 投稿日 | 2021/6/15 |
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| 投稿者 | Lopes, Sandra; Meincke, Henrik H; Lamotte, Mark; Olivieri, Anamaria-Vera; Lean, Michael E J |
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| ジャーナル名 | Obesity science & practice |
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| 組織名 | Novo Nordisk A/S Soborg Denmark.;IQVIA Zaventem Belgium.;IQVIA Basel Switzerland.;Human Nutrition School of Medicine, Dentistry and Nursing Royal Infirmary;University of Glasgow Glasgow UK. |
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| Pubmed リンク | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34123394/ |
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