| アブストラクト | OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of QCancer(R) (Gastro-Oesophageal) for predicting the risk of undiagnosed gastro-oesophageal cancer in an independent UK cohort of patients from general practice records. DESIGN: Open cohort study to validate QCancer(R) (Gastro-Oesophageal) prediction model. Three hundred sixty-five practices from the United Kingdom contributing to The Health Improvement Network database. 2.1 million patients registered with a general practice surgery between 01 January 2000 and 30 June 2008, aged 30-84years (3.7 million person years) with 1766 gastro-oesophageal cancer cases. The outcome, gastro-oesophageal cancer was defined as incident diagnosis of gastro-oesophageal cancer during the 2years after study entry. RESULTS: The results from this independent and external validation of QCancer(R) (Gastro-Oesophageal) demonstrated good performance data on a large cohort of general practice patients. QCancer(R) (Gastro-Oesophageal) had very good discrimination with c-statistics of 0.93 and 0.94 for women and men respectively. QCancer(R) (Gastro-Oesophageal) was well calibrated across all tenths of risk and over all age ranges with predicted risks closely matching observed risks. QCancer(R) (Gastro-Oesophageal) explained 74.4% and 75.6% of the variation in men and women respectively. CONCLUSIONS: QCancer(R) (Gastro-Oesophageal) is a useful tool to identify undiagnosed gastro-oesophageal cancer in primary care in the United Kingdom. |
|---|
| ジャーナル名 | European journal of cancer (Oxford, England : 1990) |
|---|
| Pubmed追加日 | 2012/11/20 |
|---|
| 投稿者 | Collins, Gary S; Altman, Douglas G |
|---|
| 組織名 | Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Wolfson College Annexe, University of Oxford,;Linton Road, Oxford, UK. gary.collins@csm.ox.ac.uk |
|---|
| Pubmed リンク | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23159533/ |
|---|
